The Keystone State (Pennsylvania) has become the “keystone” of Electoral college. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the Presidency in 2020.
I used 2016 Presidential Election data to build a simple model and then applied the findings to predict 2020 outcome for the Pennsylvania in two scenarios.
Presidential Election: 2016
- Registered voter by race (Assuming the race distribution is not changed in the registered voter subset)
Registered voter by race = Registered Voter x % Race
White voters = 8,722,977 x 0.761 = 6,638,185
Black voters = 8,722,977 x 0.108 = 942,081
Hispanic voters = 8,722,977 x 0.076 = 662,946
2. Registered voter who voted by race
Registered voter who voted by race = Registered voter by race x turn-out by race
White voted = 6,638,185 x 0.653 = 4,334,734
Black voted = 942,081 x 0.596 = 561,480
Hispanic voted = 662,946 x 0.527 = 349,372
3. Vote received
Vote received = Registered voter who voted by race x % Vote received by candidate by race
Presidential Election: 2020
- Registered voter by race (Assuming the race distribution is not changed in the registered voter subset)
Registered voter by race = Registered Voter x % Race
White Voters = 8,599,254 x 0.761 = 6,544,032
Black = 8,599,254 x 0.108 = 928,791
Hispanic = 8,599,254 x 0.076 = 653,543
2. Registered voter who voted by race
Registered voter who voted by race = Registered voter by race x turn-out by race
White voted = 6,544,032 x 0.702 = 4,593,910
Black voted = 928,791 x 0.666 = 618,574
Hispanic voted = 653,543 x 0.561 = 366,637
3. Vote received
Vote received = Registered voter who voted by race x % Vote received by candidate by race
SCENARIO 2:
- Registered voter by race (Assuming the race distribution is not changed in the registered voter subset)
Registered voter by race = Registered Voter x % Race
White Voters = 8,599,254 x 0.761 = 6,544,032
Black = 8,599,254 x 0.108 = 928,791
Hispanic = 8,599,254 x 0.076 = 653,543
2. Registered voter who voted by race
Registered voter who voted by race = Registered voter by race x turn-out by race
White voted = 6,544,032 x 0.702 = 4,593,910
Black voted = 928,791 x 0.666 = 618,574
Hispanic voted = 653,543 x 0.561 = 366,637
3. Vote received
Vote received = Registered voter who voted by race x % Vote received by candidate by race
Biden needs to get 76% of the Hispanic vote and allow Trump to get maximum 18% of the Hispanic votes to turn the KEYSTONE State blue.
Biden better promise something that the Hispanic voters want to hear by end of Saturday.
